After New Line Cinema’s IT remake helped save the box office after the worst summer season in 15 years, box office pundits saw the box office slip into another slump this month, with three straight weekends of underperforming top movies such as Blade Runner 2049 ($32.7 million), Happy Death Day ($26.5 million) and last weekend’s winner Boo 2! A Madea Halloween ($21.6 million). This dreadful month closes out with the return of a box office killer, Jigsaw, who hopes to breathe new life into the sagging box office this weekend, along with two more newcomers, Paramount’s dark comedy Suburbicon and Universal’s drama Thank You For Your Service. While it likely won’t be another massive weekend, we’re predicting that Jigsaw will end up on top with a projected $23.6 million.
The Saw franchise has never been a box office behemoth, with none of the first seven movies earning more than $90 million at the domestic box office, with its top earner being 2004’s Saw II with $87 million, with $147.7 million worldwide. The franchise kept going because the movies were made with such miniscule budgets, with Saw ($56 million domestic, $103.9 million worldwide) costing just $1.2 million, Saw II costing $4 million and Saw III ($80.2 million domestic, $164.8 million worldwide) costing $10 million. Saw IV ($63.3 million domestic, $139.4 million worldwide) and Saw V ($70.5 million domestic, $113.9 million worldwide) fared well, but 2009’s Saw VI marked a low point in the franchise with $27.9 million domestic and $68.2 million worldwide from an $11 million budget, but 2010’s Saw 3D, the most recent installment, rebounded a bit with $51.3 million domestic and $136.2 million worldwide.
What remains to be seen is if there is still an audience for this horror franchise, seven years after its last installment. Jigsaw (a.k.a. Saw 8), will arrive in approximately 2,700 theaters this weekend, a modest rollout that marks the second lowest theater count in franchise history, ahead of only the first first Saw movie which opened in 2,315 theaters in 2004. Still, this rollout is expected to be roughly 700 theaters ahead of its two competitors this weekend with Suburbicon and Thank You For Your Service both expected to arrive in 2,000 theaters. Open Road Films’ All I See Is You was originally expected to open in wide release but now it will only debut in 250 theaters this weekend. As of now, only Suburbicon has enough reviews posted for a TomatoMeter score, with a middling 40% on Rotten Tomatoes.
We’re projecting that the remaining newcomers will take the second and third spots this weekend, with Suburbicon, starring Matt Damon and directed by George Clooney taking second place with $13.6 million, Thank You for Your Service in third with $12.2 million and the top 5 rounded out by Boo 2! a Madea Halloween ($11.8 million) and Geostorm $7.4 million). The top 10 will be rounded out by Happy Death Day ($5.4 million), Blade Runner 2049 ($4 million), Only the Brave ($3.3 million), The Foreigner ($2.9 million) IT ($1.8 million). Also arriving in limited release, is Vertical Entertainment’s comedy Crash Pad, Cohen Media Group’s drama Daughter of the Nile, Strand’s music drama Felicite, Dada Films’ drama God’s Own Country, Cinedigm’s comedy/drama The Heyday of the Insensitive Bastards, Atlas Distribution’s drama Let There be Light, Sony Pictures Classics’ drama Novitiate and Magnolia’s comedy The Square.
Looking ahead to next weekend, Marvel Studios brings the highly-anticipated Thor: Ragnarok into theaters, and while there hasn’t been a specific theater count given yet, this Thor sequel will likely arrive in more than 4,000 theaters. The superhero sequel’s only other new competitor is STX Entertainment’s A Bad Moms Christmas, although that arrives a few days early on November 1. Box Office Mojo reports that, also arriving in limited release that weekend are The Orchard’s documentary 11/8/16, Parade Deck Films’ comedy Bad Grandmas, Hannover House’s drama Battlecreek, Magnolia’s action movie Blade of the Immortal, Strand’s documentary Dream Boat, Yash Raj’s action thriller ITTEFAQ, A24’s dramatic comedy Lady Bird, Lionsgate’s drama Last Flag Flying, Electric Entertainment’s drama LBJ, FilmRise’s drama My Friend Dahmer, Archstone’s war drama On Wings of Eagles and Vertical Entertainment’s sci-fi film Singularity. Take a look at our projections for the box office weekend of October 27, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates.
|3||Thank You for Your Service|
|4||Boo 2! a Madea Halloween|
|6||Happy Death Day|
|7||Blade Runner 2049|
|8||Only the Brave|