Will Jurassic World 2 Devour the Summer Box Office?

After an utterly disappointing Memorial Day holiday weekend and the first frame in June, the summer box office has slowly but surely started to rebound in the past few weeks. Ocean’s 8 put up a strong debut of $41.6 million two weeks ago, and last weekend, The Incredibles 2 set a new box office record with a whopping $182.6 million, the highest debut ever for an animated movie, shattering the previous record of $135 million by Finding Dory. Even if The Incredibles 2 pulls off a minimal drop it will still fall to Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, with a projected debut of $193.7 million.

We made this opening weekend projection back in May with our summer box office predictions list, but when the first round of predictions from other analysts surfaced later that month, they put this epic sequel’s opening weekend between $140 million and $150 million. We’re still sticking with our original prediction, though, which would be an impressive debut even if it becomes one of the rare sequels that doesn’t out-gross its predecessor. Then again, most sequels’ predecessors didn’t set an all time opening weekend record of $208.8 million like Jurassic World did back in 2015.

Barring a resurgence of positive reviews in the next few days, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom will open as a “rotten” movie according to the Rotten Tomatoes critics, but just barely. As of now, the movie has a 59% rating on RT, just 1% below the 60% threshold between Fresh and Rotten movies. Its predecessor Jurassic World posted a solid 71% RT rating en route to its monstrous opening weekend, where it broke the three-year record of $207.4 million set by The Avengers in 2012. Even if it falls short of our $193.7 million projection, it will certainly have no trouble defeating last weekend’s winner The Incredibles 2, which we’re predicting will drop to second place with $89.6 million.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom doesn’t have any direct competition in wide release this weekend, and it is expected to open in approximately 4,400 theaters, which would put it within the range to have one of the top 5 widest openings of all time, two of which were released this summer. 2012’s The Dark Knight Rises has the fifth widest release ever with 4,404 theaters, followed by last weekend’s winner The Incredibles 2 (4,410 theaters), 2010’s The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (4,468 theaters), this April’s Avengers: Infinity War (4,474 theaters) and last summer’s Despicable Me 3 (4,529 theaters). By comparison, Jurassic World opened in 4,274 theaters in 2015, the 26th widest release ever.

We’re predicting the top 10 will be rounded out by Ocean’s 8 ($9.7 million), Tag ($7.8 million), Solo: A Star Wars Story ($4.3 million), Deadpool 2 ($4.2 million), Hereditary ($3.8 million), Superfly ($3.1 million), Avengers: Infinity War ($2.6 million) and Adrift ($1.3 million). Looking ahead to next weekend, only two new movies arrive in wide release, Sony’s Sicario: Day of the Soldado and Lionsgate’s Uncle Drew. Take a look at the box office projections for the weekend of June 22 below, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates, courtesy of Box Office Mojo.

1 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
2 Incredibles 2
3 Ocean’s 8
4 Tag
5 Solo: A Star Wars Story
6 Deadpool 2
7 Hereditary
8 Superfly
9 Avengers: Infinity War
10 Adrift

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